Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
Identifieur interne : 000986 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000985; suivant : 000987Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
Auteurs : Tetsuro Kobayashi ; Sung-Mok Jung ; Natalie M. Linton ; Ryo Kinoshita ; Katsuma Hayashi ; Takeshi Miyama ; Asami Anzai ; Yichi Yang ; Baoyin Yuan ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ; Ayako Suzuki ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- Journal of Clinical Medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.
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DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020580
PubMed: 32098019
PubMed Central: 7073841
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Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00580">Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan;<email>takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anzai, Asami" sort="Anzai, Asami" uniqKey="Anzai A" first="Asami" last="Anzai">Asami Anzai</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> 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Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> 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Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00580">Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan;<email>takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anzai, Asami" sort="Anzai, Asami" uniqKey="Anzai A" first="Asami" last="Anzai">Asami Anzai</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email> (T.K.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (S.-m.J.);<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (N.M.L.);<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (K.H.);<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.A.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (Y.Y.);<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email> (B.Y.);<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email> (A.R.A.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email> (A.S.)</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00580">Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kelly, H" uniqKey="Kelly H">H. Kelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cowling, B J" uniqKey="Cowling B">B.J. Cowling</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ghani, A C" uniqKey="Ghani A">A.C. Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C A" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C.A. Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cox, D R" uniqKey="Cox D">D.R. Cox</name></author><author><name sortKey="Griffin, J T" uniqKey="Griffin J">J.T. Griffin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C. 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Akhmetzhanov</name><name sortKey="Anzai, Asami" sort="Anzai, Asami" uniqKey="Anzai A" first="Asami" last="Anzai">Asami Anzai</name><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name></noCountry><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidV2
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |